International Trade And The Business Cycle  

Oleh:

Prasad, Eswar S.

Jenis: Article from Journal - ilmiah internasional
Dalam koleksi: The Economic Journal (EBSCO) vol. 109 no. 458 (Oct. 1999), page 588-606.
Fulltext: 588.pdf (359.84KB)

Isi artikel

This paper develops a new empirical framework for analysing the dynamics of the trade balance in response to different types of macroeconomic shocks. The model provides a synthetic perspective on the conditional correlations between the business cycle and the trade balance that are generated by different shocks and attempts to reconcile these results with unconditional correlations found in the data. The results suggest that, in the post-Bretton Woods period, nominal shocks have been an important determinant of the forecast error variance for ¯uctuations in the trade balance in G-7 countries.

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