Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Prediction: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters  

Oleh:

Boero, Gianna ; Smith, Jeremy ; Wallis, Kenneth F.

Jenis: Article from Journal - ilmiah internasional
Dalam koleksi: The Economic Journal (EBSCO) vol. 118 no. 530 (Jul. 2008), page 1107.
Topik: Uncertainty; Disagreement; Economic Prediction; Bank of England; Survey of External Forecasters
Fulltext: 1107.pdf (623.52KB)

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Perpustakaan Pusat (Semanggi) Nomor Panggil: EE28.28 Non-tandon: 1 (dapat dipinjam: 0) Tandon: tidak ada

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Isi artikel

This article introduces a new source of survey data, namely the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters. The survey collects point and density forecasts of inflation and GDP growth and, hence, offers the opportunity of constructing direct measures of uncertainty. We present a simple statistical framework in which to define and interrelate measures of uncertainty and disagreement. The resulting measures are compared with other direct measures of uncertainty, nationally and internationally. A significant, sustained reduction in inflation uncertainty followed the 1997 granting of operational independence to the Bank of England to pursue a monetary policy of inflation targeting.

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