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Prospective Fuel Price Hike and the Poor (PostScript, Vol.1 No.8 December 2004)
Bibliografi
Author:
Mustasya, Tata
Topik:
Fuel Price
Bahasa:
(EN )
Edisi:
Des 2004
Penerbit:
The Habibie Center
Jenis:
Article - diterbitkan di jurnal ilmiah nasional
Fulltext:
PostScript15.pdf
(239.49KB;
0 download
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Abstract
The government plans to raise fuel price by around 40 percent in the
next budget year.' The plan is not surprising since international oil
price has exceeded US$ 50, way higher than its assumption in the
budget plan 2004 at US$ 22. As an impact, the government has to spend
around Rp. 70 trillion this year for subsidizing relatively low domestic price.
On the one hand, the most important objective of fuel subsidy is to
enable the poor to fulfill their basic needs, including some goods and
services whose prices are closely related to the fuel price. On the other
hand, there is also an indication that 50 percent of the subsidy is enjoyed
by the 20 percent richest-instead of the poor-as they consume more fuel
than the poor. Meanwhile, the poorest only enjoy 6 percent of the subsidy.'
If the government raises the amount of the subsidy and does not
hike the fuel price, it will reduce allocation for some substantive items
for around 37.3 million poor like basic education, primary health, rural
infrastructure development, and food security fund. Reducing the subsidy
is also not easy to be implemented as the poor and the near poor are
more sensitive to negative impacts affected by the hike. Hence, interests
of the poor become a crucial point in fuel price hike issue. Do the price
hike and its compensation create benefits or losses for the poor?
Aside of the economic issues, it is also interesting to see the political
impact of the price hike. In fact, the poor-regardless their big numbershave
lesser political power to influence government policy than the
political elite, who might manipulate public dissatisfaction on the price
hike to improve their political bargaining vis a vis the government.
Furthermore, the price hike could create new political constellation due
to the decreasing popularity of the present government.
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