Detail Essays on exchange rate exposure, interest rate exposure, and the economic crisis in Thailand Bibliografi Author: Thorbecke, Erik (Advisor); Bhaopichitr, Kirida Topik: ECONOMICS; GENERAL|ECONOMICS; THEORY Bahasa: (EN )    ISBN: 0-599-42724-8     Penerbit: cornell university     Tahun Terbit: 1999     Jenis: Theses - Dissertation Fulltext: 9941192.pdf (0.0B; 1 download) Abstract This dissertation is comprised of three chapters. Chapter One traces and presents analytical accounts and explanations of the causes of Thailand's economic crisis, which began mid 1997. The study focuses on macroeconomic management and the factors that underlie the country's unprecedented economic growth and decline. They include weaknesses in the macroeconomic fundamentals and in the financial system, as well as external and political factors. This chapter provides a comprehensive discussion of the reasons for the seemingly abrupt economic downturn in an economy that was known to be an ‘Asian miracle’. Lessons drawn from Indonesia and Taiwan are also discussed to provide further insights into the recent East Asian crisis. Chapter Two examines the impacts of exchange rate and interest rate fluctuations on the performance of different firms and industries in Thailand both prior to and during the crisis. It also discusses the role of foreign external debt and currency hedging in determining the exposures of various firms and industries. Finally, the relationship between exchange rates and interest rates is determined. Empirical results from Chapter Two show that in Thailand, interest rates and exchange rates do not follow the interest rate parity. This was particularly true during the recent economic crisis in which higher interest rates have led to exchange rate depreciation. Interest rises during the crisis were, therefore, detrimental to the health of industries in Thailand because not only were most industries negatively exposed to interest rates and exchange rates, but they also were more highly exposed to interest rates than exchange rates. Thus, their net exposure, reflecting their exposure to interest rates, was negative. Short-term debt levels positively determine Thai firms' exposure to interest rates and exchange rates. In Chapter Three, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on stock values with a new database of monthly stock prices and exchange rates for seven Asian economies from 1873 to the eve of the Second World War is explored. The sample includes a variety of industries from economies which adopted silver, gold, or paper monetary standards at widely differing times. Significant exchange rate exposures, which have the “correct” sign and which change with shifts in currency regimes, illustrate the importance of currency fluctuations for stock prices. Associations between stock returns and conditional exchange rate volatility differ in size and significance across industries and countries, suggesting differences in the ability of firms to adapt to currency uncertainty. Significant stock return residuals are not always observed at times of silver-related legislative and regulatory events, suggesting that only certain events affected selected industries. The significant power of lagged silver price changes to forecast stock returns suggests that silver was an important general indicator for the state of the Asian economies, in addition to having a direct impact. Opini Anda Klik untuk menuliskan opini Anda tentang koleksi ini! Lihat Sejarah Pengadaan  Konversi Metadata   Kembali

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