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Central bank conduct and the endogenous determination of monetary policy
Bibliografi
Author:
Ingram, David Allen
;
Cassou, Steve
(Advisor)
Topik:
ECONOMICS
;
GENERAL|POLITICAL SCIENCE
;
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
Bahasa:
(EN )
ISBN:
0-591-46740-2
Penerbit:
KANSAS STATE UNIVERSITY
Tahun Terbit:
1997
Jenis:
Theses - Dissertation
Fulltext:
9736755.pdf
(0.0B;
1 download
)
Abstract
This study seeks to determine the extent of endogeneity in indicators of monetary policy for the United States Federal Reserve as well as the presence of any bias in the Federal Reserve's conduct of monetary policy. The vector autoregression method is used to present forecast error variance decompositions which relate the percentage of variation of shocks in the monetary policy indicators attributable to the endogenous variables in the system, as well as impulse response functions which display the time-path that a monetary policy indicator will take following a one-standard deviation shock to each of the endogenous variables in the system. The monetary policy indicators are nonborrowed reserves and the federal funds rate. The endogenous variables are the ratio of the federal government budget deficit to industrial production, the growth rate of industrial production, the rate of inflation, the interest rate on the Treasury bill, the U.S. dollar/SDR exchange rate, the ratio of the trade balance to industrial production, and employment. The analysis occurs between the sub-periods of the Bretton Woods and the Post Bretton Woods periods as well as the activist Keynesian period of 1960-1979 and the post-Monetarist period of 1982-1996. An international comparison is then made between the United States, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom. The Results indicate substantial endogeneity of monetary policy with the indicators responding to shocks in particular sub-periods according to the unique circumstances of that period. In particular, there is evidence of an expansionary bias in the Federal Reserve's conduct of monetary policy with respect to budget deficits during the post-Monetarist experiment period and with respect to the international variables across all sub-periods. The international comparison shows that the U.S. compares favorably with the foreign countries in avoiding an expansionary bias with the exception of the international variables where, again, there is evidence of a balance of payments motive.
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