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Asset prices and the macroeconomy
Bibliografi
Author:
Metrick, Andrew
(Advisor);
Good, Christopher David
;
Campbell, John
(Advisor);
Gompers, Paul
(Advisor)
Topik:
ECONOMICS
;
FINANCE
Bahasa:
(EN )
ISBN:
0-591-42839-3
Penerbit:
Harvard University Press
Tahun Terbit:
1997
Jenis:
Theses - Dissertation
Fulltext:
9733297.pdf
(0.0B;
2 download
)
Abstract
The first chapter presents a series of highly simplified models which explore the effects of human capital on asset returns. In these models, human capital is an ex-ante heterogeneous, non-tradeable asset. It is heterogeneous in that the correlation between labor income and stock value differs across individuals. Individuals with a greater correlation short the risky asset to hedge labor income risk, while individuals with a lesser correlation require sufficient expected returns on the risky asset to hold the asset and clear the market. By enriching the models to make markets incomplete, I find that an econometrician working under the auspice of a representative agent model will misestimate the degree of risk aversion in the economy in ways which allow for both a deepening and a weakening of the equity premium puzzle. The second chapter looks at why the Fama-French (1993) three-factor asset-pricing model captures the book-to-market equity effect. The effect is that stocks with high book-to-market equity (BE/ME) ratios have high average returns and the returns are highly correlated with one another. One explanation of this BE/ME effect is that there is a unique source of undiversifiable risk to which high BE/ME stocks are especially sensitive; i.e. there is a BE/ME-factor component of returns. This paper uses industry returns data to investigate the existence of such a BE/ME factor. I provide evidence that there is undiversifiable risk associated with high BE/ME stocks. Furthermore, changes in the market-equity weights of individual firms and the returns on their stocks are dominated not by industry-specific movements, but by firm-specific movements, suggesting that the BE/ME effect is best thought of as a firm-specific phenomenon. The third chapter estimates the inflation risk premium implicit in the returns on five-year U.S. government bonds. The results indicate that the average inflation risk premium from August 1953 to November 1995 is 61 basis points per year. The premium ranges from a low of 16 basis points per year in May 1965 to a high of 2.6 percent per year in May 1980. I show that the inflation risk premium is responsible for virtually all of the expected return on the bond. In addition, the paper provides estimates of a number of other interesting time series such as the conditional expected excess market return, the price of market risk, and the conditional excess market return variance.
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