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Two essays in dynamic macroeconomics
Bibliografi
Author:
Sims, Christopher A.
(Advisor);
Kim, Jinill
Topik:
ECONOMICS
;
GENERAL|ECONOMICS
;
THEORY
Bahasa:
(EN )
ISBN:
0-591-21356-7
Penerbit:
Yale University Press
Tahun Terbit:
1996
Jenis:
Theses - Dissertation
Fulltext:
9713677.pdf
(0.0B;
0 download
)
Abstract
The first essay constructs a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium (DSGE) model with real and nominal rigidities which succeeds in capturing some key nominal features of U.S. business cycles. Monetary policy is specified following the developments in the structural vector autoregression (VAR) literature. Four shocks, including both technology and monetary policy shocks, affect the economy. Interaction between real and nominal rigidities is essential to reproduce the liquidity effect of monetary policy. The model is estimated by maximum likelihood on U.S. data. The model's fit is as good as that of an unrestricted first-order VAR and that the estimated model produces reasonable impulse responses and second moments. An increase of interest rates predicts a decrease of output two to six quarters in the future. This feature of U.S. business cycles has never been captured by previous research with DSGE models. Lastly, the policy implications are discussed. In a model with monopolistic competition, various types of increasing returns to scale have been introduced and a zero profit condition is imposed. The second essay shows that the behavior of the aggregate variables depends critically on how the mechanics of the zero profit condition are specified. The endogenous variable can be the number of firms or the fixed cost (or both). A further complication involves the speed of adjustment in a dynamic model. It is shown that the aggregate returns to scale are a linear combination of three parameters: the returns to amplification, the returns to specialization, and the degree of monopolistic competition. Identification issues are discussed in relation to the data and the model. Welfare implications are derived and a welfare-improving policy is proposed.
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