Detail Debt, deficits, and fiscal policy: Three essays Bibliografi Author: Buchanan, Neil Harold ; Friedman, Benjamin M. (Advisor) Topik: ECONOMICS; GENERAL|ECONOMICS; THEORY Bahasa: (EN )    ISBN: 0-591-18175-4     Penerbit: Harvard University Press     Tahun Terbit: 1996     Jenis: Theses - Dissertation Fulltext: 9710400.pdf (0.0B; 1 download) Abstract These essays explore some implications of Robert Eisner's approach to measuring the U.S. fiscal deficit. Specifically, Eisner advocates subtracting 'price effects' (i.e., the reduction in the value of outstanding public debt due to inflation) from the structural deficit, resulting in the 'Price-Adjusted High Employment Deficit,' or PAHED. In Chapter I of this thesis, I compare thirteen separate ways to measure the deficit, performing tests with ordinary least squares regression, instrumental variables estimation (two-stage least squares regression), vector auto-regressions (VAR's), and impulse response functions. I conclude that Eisner's assertion is supported, i.e., that the federal government's price-adjusted high-employment deficit provides the strongest statistical results in the tests performed, although this relative strength is not overwhelming. In Chapter II, I confront two potential problems in the data. First, since the structural deficit series published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis was discontinued in mid-1991, an alternative series, estimated by the Congressional Budget Office using a different methodology, must be used instead. Second, Eisner used a complex method of computing price effects that he later rejected in favor of a simpler method. Using regression analysis, Granger-causality tests, and Block Exogeneity tests, I find that the CBO's structural deficit series does not differ from the BEA's discontinued series, whereas the simpler method of computing price effects produces less significant estimates than does the more complex method. Chapter III presents estimates of the impact of the fiscal deficit on the growth of GDP and its components. I introduce an interactive term, which separates the effects of deficits into those that occur when the economy is at capacity from those that occur only when the economy is in a recession or a boom. I find that deficits raise GDP growth above trend, even when the economy is at capacity, showing up mostly as an increase in the growth of durable goods consumption. When the economy is relatively weak, deficit spending also tends to increase the growth in equipment investment, consistent with the accelerator hypothesis. Opini Anda Klik untuk menuliskan opini Anda tentang koleksi ini! Lihat Sejarah Pengadaan  Konversi Metadata   Kembali

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