The Presidential Puzzle : Political Cycles And The Stock Market  

Oleh:

Santa-Clara, Pedro ; Valkanov, Rossen

Jenis: Article from Journal - ilmiah internasional
Dalam koleksi: The Journal of Finance (EBSCO) vol. 58 no. 5 (Oct. 2003), page 1841-1872.
Topik: stock market; rates of return; securities markets; political parties; presidents; studies
Fulltext: p 1841.pdf (292.57KB)

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Perpustakaan Pusat (Semanggi) Nomor Panggil: JJ88 Non-tandon: 1 (dapat dipinjam: 0) Tandon: tidak ada

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Isi artikel

The excess return in the stock market is higher under Democratic rather than Republican presidencies : 9 percent for the value - weighted and 16 percent for the equal - weighted portfolio. The difference comes from higher real stock returns and lower real interest rates, is statistically significant, and is robust in sub - samples. The difference in returns is not explained by business - cycle variable related to expected returns, and is not concentrated around election dates. There is no difference in the riskiness of the stock market across presidencies that could justify a risk premium. The difference in returns through the political cycle is therefore a puzzle.

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